1025 Lake Arrowhead Dr

Hickory Flat, MS 38633

$49,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $500/mo
• Annual: $6,003/yr
• Cap rate: 18.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.75%
• DSCR: 2.95
• 1% rule: 2.13%
• Cash to close: $13,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#81 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Union County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #13 of 130 in MS (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.