1025 Lake Arrowhead Dr · Hickory Flat, MS 38633

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1978 0.50 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cash, as-is opportunity located in a private, tucked-away community in Hickory Flat. 1025 Lake Arrow Dr. offers privacy, space, and strong upside for the right buyer. Ideal for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a value-add project in a quiet setting away from through traffic.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#81 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Union County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #13 of 130 in MS (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.75%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.25×
• Total profit: $44,551
• Equity at exit: $29,245

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.77×
• Total profit: $106,541
• Equity at exit: $51,740

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38633

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $546/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $409

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $49,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $49,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-04-02
    price $49,000 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Cash, as-is opportunity located in a private, tucked-away community in Hickory Flat. 1025 Lake Arrow Dr. offers privacy, space, and strong upside for the right buyer. Ideal for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a value-add project in a quiet setting away from through traffic.

11. 2026-03-25
    price $55,000 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Cash, as-is opportunity located in a private, tucked-away community in Hickory Flat. 1025 Lake Arrow Dr. offers privacy, space, and strong upside for the right buyer. Ideal for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a value-add project in a quiet setting away from through traffic.

12. 2026-03-13
    price $63,000 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Cash, as-is opportunity located in a private, tucked-away community in Hickory Flat. 1025 Lake Arrow Dr. offers privacy, space, and strong upside for the right buyer. Ideal for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a value-add project in a quiet setting away from through traffic.

13. 2026-02-21
    listed $70,000 Active 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Cash, as-is opportunity located in a private, tucked-away community in Hickory Flat. 1025 Lake Arrow Dr. offers privacy, space, and strong upside for the right buyer. Ideal for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a value-add project in a quiet setting away from through traffic.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $546 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $546 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$546
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $5,542
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,330
• After-tax cash flow: $4,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union County School District
• NCES district ID: 2804350
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,935
• Composite: 42.49/100
• National rank: #3209
• State rank: #13 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hickory Flat

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #10698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,091

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,992 people
• By 2030: 32,294 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 34,789 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 36,987 · +19.3%
• By 2075: 40,835 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 40,538 · +30.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Russian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.1) · D 14.5% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -49.9pp · 2024: -70.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.1 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+49.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.49%
• Current HPI: 126.6904
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $49,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $55,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $63,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-21 Listed $70,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $546 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.