38 Orchard Dr

Clinton, KY 42031

$100,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $924/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $141/mo
• Annual: $1,693/yr
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.05%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (7.6% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#369 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hickman County (rural): math 41% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #24 of 165 in KY (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hickman County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #148 of 676 statewide, top 24%, 421 students, 58% FRL); Hickman County High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #32 of 254 statewide, top 13%, 302 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP.
• Hickman County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.