38 Orchard Dr · Clinton, KY 42031

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

10,019 sqft lot Est $91k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This completely remodeled home is beautiful & just waiting for it's perfect, new owners! This house was taken down to the studs and updated with all new appliances, fresh paint, new heat & air, & much more! Schedule a showing today! I have a feeling this charmer won't last long!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Roomy kitchen
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• ROOMY KITCHEN
• NEW WINDOW WORLD WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF
• ATTACHED ONE CAR GARAGE
• CONVENIENT PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Frame with vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#369 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hickman County (rural): math 41% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #24 of 165 in KY (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hickman County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #148 of 676 statewide, top 24%, 421 students, 58% FRL); Hickman County High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #32 of 254 statewide, top 13%, 302 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hickman County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,368 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.05%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,440
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Piper Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,117 (+10%)	2mo	$130,000	$116	76
513 Mayfield Rd	0.38mi	2/1.0	960 (-6%)	10mo	$47,000	$49	65
528 Elm	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,061 (+4%)	11mo	$95,000	$90	57
512 Elm St	0.60mi	2/1.0	918 (-10%)	1mo	$89,000	$97	55
413 Mayfield Highway Rd	0.57mi	1/1.0 (-1)	927 (-9%)	12mo	$65,000	$70	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-7,266
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $5,047
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42031

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $270/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $745

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $169	+0% $141	+5% $113	+10% $85
Rent	-10% $68	-5% $105	+0% $141	+5% $178	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $167	base $141	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 651-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $100,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2025-10-08
    price $99,999
14. 2025-07-30
    listed $110,000 Active
15. 2023-12-12
    soldstatus $69,175 Closed 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This completely remodeled home is beautiful & just waiting for it's perfect, new owners! This house was taken down to the studs and updated with all new appliances, fresh paint, new heat & air, & much more! Schedule a showing today! I have a feeling this charmer won't last long!

16. 2023-12-12
    soldstatus $69,175

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This completely remodeled home is beautiful & just waiting for it's perfect, new owners! This house was taken down to the studs and updated with all new appliances, fresh paint, new heat & air, & much more! Schedule a showing today! I have a feeling this charmer won't last long!

17. 2023-10-24
    price $79,900 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This completely remodeled home is beautiful & just waiting for it's perfect, new owners! This house was taken down to the studs and updated with all new appliances, fresh paint, new heat & air, & much more! Schedule a showing today! I have a feeling this charmer won't last long!

18. 2023-09-21
    price $84,900 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This completely remodeled home is beautiful & just waiting for it's perfect, new owners! This house was taken down to the studs and updated with all new appliances, fresh paint, new heat & air, & much more! Schedule a showing today! I have a feeling this charmer won't last long!

19. 2023-09-01
    soldstatus $17,500
20. 2023-08-21
    price $89,999 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This completely remodeled home is beautiful & just waiting for it's perfect, new owners! This house was taken down to the studs and updated with all new appliances, fresh paint, new heat & air, & much more! Schedule a showing today! I have a feeling this charmer won't last long!

21. 2023-08-15
    status Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This completely remodeled home is beautiful & just waiting for it's perfect, new owners! This house was taken down to the studs and updated with all new appliances, fresh paint, new heat & air, & much more! Schedule a showing today! I have a feeling this charmer won't last long!

22. 2023-08-11
    historical 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This completely remodeled home is beautiful & just waiting for it's perfect, new owners! This house was taken down to the studs and updated with all new appliances, fresh paint, new heat & air, & much more! Schedule a showing today! I have a feeling this charmer won't last long!

23. 2023-08-02
    listed $92,500 Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This completely remodeled home is beautiful & just waiting for it's perfect, new owners! This house was taken down to the studs and updated with all new appliances, fresh paint, new heat & air, & much more! Schedule a showing today! I have a feeling this charmer won't last long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $270 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$590/yr (+$49/mo · 218.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$270
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$887
• − Management: −$887
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $30
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7
• After-tax cash flow: $1,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickman County
• NCES district ID: 2102790
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,542
• Composite: 37.42/100
• National rank: #4421
• State rank: #24 of 165 in KY

Livability — Clinton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #369
• US rank: #17542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,388

Population outlook (Hickman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,255 people
• By 2030: 4,018 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 3,511 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 3,026 · -28.9%
• By 2075: 2,090 · -50.9%
• By 2100: 1,322 · -68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 12% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Scottish 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.0% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.4pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+56.0 2012: R+34.8 2008: R+26.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.41%
• Current HPI: 260.197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+8.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $99,999 WKRMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $110,000 WKRMLS
• 2023-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $69,175 Public Records
• 2023-12-12 Sold (MLS) $69,175 WKRMLS
• 2023-10-24 Price Changed $79,900 WKRMLS
• 2023-09-21 Price Changed $84,900 WKRMLS
• 2023-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 2023-08-21 Price Changed $89,999 WKRMLS
• 2023-08-15 Relisted — WKRMLS
• 2023-08-11 Delisted — WKRMLS
• 2023-08-02 Listed $92,500 WKRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $270 · -63.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.