1674 FM 351

Blue Berry Hill, TX 78102

$100,000B-

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,542/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $544/mo
• Annual: $6,525/yr
• Cap rate: 12.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.30%
• DSCR: 2.04
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,085 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Beeville ISD (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #638 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fadden-Mckeown-Chambliss El (math 28% / reading 26%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 562 students, 79% FRL); Moreno J H (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 705 students, 84% FRL); A C Jones H S (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,041 students, 81% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bee County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.