1674 FM 351 · Blue Berry Hill, TX 78102

$100,000

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1956

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Selling property by owner. SELLING AS IS, no owner finance nor payments. The property is Commercial Land with Duplex on an acre. Has large carport. Apartment 1 is a 1 bedroom/1bath/living room/kitchen and small laundry room with connections. Apartment 2 is a 2 bedroom/1bath/living room/kitchen/Dining Bar/small laundry room with connections. Both apartments are adjacent to each other. Fenced front yard and half fenced in backyard. Backyard has a patio area, workshop and tool shed. No water well. Is adjacent to city water, but land is county. Has septic tank. Does need some work. Asking price $100,000, but price is negotiable.

Key facts

• Patio area
• Half fenced backyard
• Large carport

Tags

• DUPLEX
• LARGE CARPORT
• FENCED FRONT YARD
• HALF FENCED BACKYARD
• PATIO AREA
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,085 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Beeville ISD (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #638 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fadden-Mckeown-Chambliss El (math 28% / reading 26%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 562 students, 79% FRL); Moreno J H (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 705 students, 84% FRL); A C Jones H S (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,041 students, 81% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bee County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.30%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $18,440
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $60,705
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78102

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,302/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $854

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $600	-5% $572	+0% $544	+5% $515	+10% $487
Rent	-10% $422	-5% $483	+0% $544	+5% $605	+10% $666
Rate	-1.0pp $594	-0.5pp $569	base $544	+0.5pp $518	+1.0pp $491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $100,000 Active 632-char remark
2. 1999-12-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,302 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$528/yr (+$44/mo · 40.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,302
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $5,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beeville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809720
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,319
• Composite: 25.23/100
• National rank: #7503
• State rank: #638 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blue Berry Hill

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1085
• US rank: #19154

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blue Berry Hill, TX
• County: Bee County · 27,455 people
• Metro: Beeville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,455
• Household income: $58,939
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 853.0

Population outlook (Bee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,003 people
• By 2030: 36,447 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 39,810 · +13.7%
• By 2050: 43,525 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 51,766 · +47.9%
• By 2100: 53,434 · +52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% Two or more races 29% White 27% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Bee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.59%
• Current HPI: 145.1182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beeville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,302 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.