405 Drake Blvd

Longview, TX 75605

$219,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,925/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $77/mo
• Annual: $928/yr
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.51%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($928/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (12.5% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#213 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Longview ISD (urban): math 49% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #244 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Johnston-Mcqueen El (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 434 students, 78% FRL, charter); Longview H S (math 61% / reading 52%, grade C, #357 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 2,170 students, 82% FRL, charter).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.