405 Drake Blvd · Longview, TX 75605

$219,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1971 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely remodeled stunning 4/2 with 1577 square feet in North Longview! Updates include 30 year warranty LVP floors, designer tile in kitchen and bathrooms, 40+ 4 inch LED can lights throughout, designer paint colors, copper colored gutters, new roof decking, new 40 year architectural shingles, ALL brand new energy efficient windows, new interior doors, handles and hardware. New granite counters in kitchen, designer lighting and plumbing fixtures, new German schmear on brick exterior. Huge fenced in back yard too! House is move in ready! Perfect for entertaining. No surface untouched. You MUST SEE this beauty in person.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Designer tile
• Led can lights

Tags

• REMODELED
• LVP FLOORS
• DESIGNER TILE
• LED CAN LIGHTS
• COPPER COLORED GUTTERS
• NEW ROOF DECKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($928/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#213 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Longview ISD (urban): math 49% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #244 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Johnston-Mcqueen El (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 434 students, 78% FRL, charter); Longview H S (math 61% / reading 52%, grade C, #357 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 2,170 students, 82% FRL, charter).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,495 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.51%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-33,623
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-34,548
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75605

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,925 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,382/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,827

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $140	+0% $77	+5% $15	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $1	+0% $77	+5% $153	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $133	base $77	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
616 Oak St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	45d	1	0.44mi
2501 N Eastman Rd Longview, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$1,528	$1.49	15d	19	1.14mi
3623 McCann Rd Longview, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,500	$2.52	15d	7	1.16mi
1608 McCann Rd Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,600	$1.14	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-06
   soldstatus
2. 2026-01-05
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-01
   listed $219,900 Active
4. 2025-03-19
   soldstatus
5. 1972-07-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,382 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,024 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,642/yr (+$137/mo · 68.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,382
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,848
• − Management: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$2,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$670
• After-tax cash flow: $1,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longview ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828110
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,837
• Composite: 39.76/100
• National rank: #3889
• State rank: #244 of 826 in TX

Livability — Longview

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #5287

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Longview, TX
• County: Gregg County · 128,826 people
• City population: 103,792
• Metro: Longview, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,417
• Household income: $73,190
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1465.0

Population outlook (Gregg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,947 people
• By 2030: 126,542 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 127,311 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 127,289 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 124,954 · -0.8%
• By 2100: 113,737 · -9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gregg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.5% · R 70.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.6pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+36.9 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+37.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.48%
• Current HPI: 227.957
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Longview, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-05 Pending — LAAR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $219,900 LAAR
• 2025-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1972-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,382 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.