3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,152 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Manufactured
· Active
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,286/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$335
Tax + insurance
−$106
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$270
Net cashflow
$574/mo
Annual
$6,890/yr
Cap rate
17.08%
Cash-on-cash
38.51%
DSCR
2.71
1% rule
2.01%
Cash to close
$17,892
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $574 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $63k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $442 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
O Fallon Twp Hsd 203 (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #145 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Central Elem School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,141 of 2,056 statewide, top 59%, 366 students, 0% FRL); Joseph Arthur Middle School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #550 of 665 statewide, top 84%, 234 students, 0% FRL); O Fallon High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #120 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 2,521 students, 0% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the O Fallon Twp Hsd 203 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.5% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PAJCDE5PJMANQR
· Data 4 months agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29