(.25 ac) 601 Faulkner Ave

Coldspring, TX 77331

$29,788F

None bd · None ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $0/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$156
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$0
• Net cashflow: $-286/mo
• Annual: $-3,430/yr
• Cap rate: -2.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -31.57%
• DSCR: -0.40
• 1% rule: 0.00%
• Cash to close: $8,341

Investor read

• This is a manufactured listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $206 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $894 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,357 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $130k (81%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -2.5% vs local median 4.3% in Coldspring — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?