6311 N Quince Way

Casas Adobes, AZ 85741

$190,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,044/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$78
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $418/mo
• Annual: $5,012/yr
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.42%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#8 in AZ, #2,353 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: amenities D.
• Flowing Wells Unified District (4405) (suburban): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 249 in AZ (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: J Robert Hendricks Elementary School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #339 of 1,109 statewide, top 32%, 469 students, 61% FRL); Flowing Wells Junior High School (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 818 students, 74% FRL); Flowing Wells High School (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #208 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 1,694 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $190k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.5% in Casas Adobes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.