6311 N Quince Way · Casas Adobes, AZ 85741

$190,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 2016 5,358 sqft lot Est $218k · 13% under $78/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a functional layout with room for everyone. Whether you need extra bedrooms, a home office, or space for guests, this one checks the boxes. Step outside and you'll find one of the standout features a large, fully fenced lot. Perfect for pets, toys, entertaining, or just enjoying your own private outdoor space . Located in the Orange Grove Mobile Estates community, you'll enjoy convenient access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials while still having a sense of space and privacy. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a solid investment, this property delivers value, flexibility, and room to live.

Key facts

• Fully fenced lot
• 5,358 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.5% in Casas Adobes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#8 in AZ, #2,353 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: amenities D.
• Flowing Wells Unified District (4405) (suburban): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 249 in AZ (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: J Robert Hendricks Elementary School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #339 of 1,109 statewide, top 32%, 469 students, 61% FRL); Flowing Wells Junior High School (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 818 students, 74% FRL); Flowing Wells High School (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #208 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 1,694 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $190k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.42%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,952
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6311 N Quince Way	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$190,000	$121	99
3588 W Grape Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	10mo	$200,000	$139	68
6361 N Lime Way	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-8%)	14mo	$154,000	$106	68
3411 W Apricot Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (+4%)	20mo	$175,000	$107	66
3531 W Cantaloupe Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	6mo	$235,000	$175	59
6361 N Quince Way	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	18mo	$225,000	$167	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,507
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $19,281
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85741

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$78
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,516

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3530 W Ethan Crossing Ln Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,200	$1.45	23d	1	0.21mi
3500 W Orange Grove Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,669	$1.39	23d	1	0.25mi
6491 N Lena Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,195	$1.63	3d	1	0.44mi
6718 N Positano Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,796	$1.32	3d	1	0.64mi
3777 W Horizon Hills Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,750	$1.39	23d	1	0.68mi
3213 W Northstar Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1270	$1,800	$1.42	43d	1	0.79mi
3073 W Placita Montessa Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,900	$1.28	23d	1	0.94mi
3201 W Ina Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	803	$1,895	$2.36	43d	34	1.04mi
4105 W Aerie Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1257	$4,300	$3.42	1d	24	1.09mi
3220 W Ina Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,871	$1.59	44d	1	1.12mi
3220 W Ina Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,848	$1.57	11d	1	1.12mi
5841 N Belbrook Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,200	$1.36	16d	1	1.21mi
3415 W Simone St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,925	$1.36	43d	1	1.28mi
7406 N Boston Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,750	$1.60	23d	1	1.34mi
2356 W Ian Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,200	$1.38	1d	1	1.38mi
2255 W Orange Grove Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	858	$1,649	$1.92	11d	7	1.39mi
7490 N Thornwood Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	43d	1	1.44mi
7290 N Oldfather Rd Unit 404 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1321	$1,825	$1.38	21d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $78 · $936/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $190,000 Active
3. 2002-08-27
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $525 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$729/yr (+$61/mo · 139.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − HOA: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $2,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$486
• After-tax cash flow: $4,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flowing Wells Unified District (4405)
• NCES district ID: 0403010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,361
• Composite: 21.69/100
• National rank: #8271
• State rank: #143 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casas Adobes

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #2353

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casas Adobes, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 67,940
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $76,271
• Rent vs Own: 36.5% rent · 63.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1242.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 21% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -254.77%
• Current HPI: 275.8273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+192.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-17 Listed $190,000 MLSSAZ
• 2002-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $525 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.