3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,450 sqft ·
Built 1987
· Condo
· Active
· 218 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,280/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,753
Tax + insurance
−$941
HOA
−$1,214
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,319
Net cashflow
$53/mo
Annual
$641/yr
Cap rate
6.57%
Cash-on-cash
0.98%
DSCR
1.04
1% rule
1.20%
Cash to close
$146,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $525k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($641/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $525k).
It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $462k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Naples Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 395 students, 48% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 55% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 704 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.4% in Naples — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $6,280/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($119k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Paint
— The interior walls and ceiling have some minor scuff marks and minor discoloration.
Minor: Flooring
— The flooring has some minor scuff marks and minor discoloration.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PBF1HR7NVAYQQE
· Data 17 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29