51921 W William Rd

Aguila, AZ 85320

$714,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,714 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,744
• Tax + insurance: −$626
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-478/mo
• Annual: $-5,741/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.87%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $199,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $714k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $629k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (30.0% below list).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($628k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $500k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#256 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aguila Elementary District (4249) (rural): math 45% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #215 of 501 in AZ (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Aguila Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #505 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 123 students, 98% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $714k implies a 1247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?