51921 W William Rd · Aguila, AZ 85320

$714,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,714 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 2006 5.00 ac lot Est $487k · 47% over $58/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Fly-in living at its finest in Valley of the Eagle Airpark. This territorial custom home offers 3BD, 2.5BA, a separate office, spacious great room, and a well-appointed kitchen, all with tile floors throughout. Enjoy sweeping mountain views from covered front and back patios, surrounded by desert landscaping on 5 serene acres. A massive metal hangar with a ½ bath is ideal for a private aircraft, workshop, or toys. Horse-friendly with ample space for stalls, trailers, and desert adventures. Sold furnished—just bring your plane and settle in. Private airstrip, scenic desert setting, and only 30 minutes from Wickenburg. So whether you are looking to enjoy the AZ winter temps or pl

Key facts

• Massive metal hangar
• Private airstrip
• Desert landscaping

Tags

• SWEEPING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PATIOS
• MASSIVE METAL HANGAR
• PRIVATE AIRSTRIP
• DESERT LANDSCAPING
• HORSE-FRIENDLY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $700 (includes other items — see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage with garage door opener and direct access; RV access/parking; Hangar
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Propane service; Septic system (septic on site and connected); Private water via private water company
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Dirt road access
• Construction: Stucco and wood-frame construction; Foam roof; Built in (assessor records indicate building area)
• Exterior features: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Foam roof; Horse-friendly property; Desert and mountain views; Desert front and back yard; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Non-laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Built-in electric oven
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 4 total bathrooms (2 full, 2 half)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bathroom(s); Breakfast bar; 9-foot-plus flat ceilings; No interior steps; Full bath in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $714k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $629k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $500k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#256 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aguila Elementary District (4249) (rural): math 45% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #215 of 501 in AZ (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Aguila Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #505 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 123 students, 98% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($628k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $714k implies a 1247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $500,000 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.87%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $486,776
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48008 N 520th Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-8%)	15mo	$450,000	$284	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $7,619
• Equity at exit: $270,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $132,198
• Equity at exit: $380,753

Cash invested: $199,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85320

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,744
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,944/yr
• Insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,606

Max offer price $629,484

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $178,500
• Closing costs: $21,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51207 W Iver Rd Aguila, AZ	3.0	2.0	2055	$5,000	$2.43	1d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $714,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $714,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $714,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $714,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $714,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $714,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $714,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $714,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $714,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $714,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $714,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $714,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $714,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $714,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-03-09
    price $714,000
16. 2026-01-27
    listed $739,000 Active
17. 2005-06-01
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,944 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,712 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: +$769/yr (+$64/mo · 19.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,995
• − Property taxes: −$3,944
• − Insurance: −$3,570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$20,771
• Taxable loss: −$18,576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,458
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aguila Elementary District (4249)
• NCES district ID: 0400480
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,507
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #9763
• State rank: #215 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Aguila

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #23150

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 315

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 41% Native American 16% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Current HPI: 111.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1247.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $714,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $739,000 ARMLS
• 2005-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,944 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.