129 Hogsback Rd

Richfield Springs, NY 13439

$99,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $329/mo
• Annual: $3,947/yr
• Cap rate: 10.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.24%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#328 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Richfield Springs Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #575 of 755 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $99k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.