129 Hogsback Rd · Richfield Springs, NY 13439

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1970 0.65 ac lot $52/sqft · 28% below area Est $138k · 28% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Value and Versatility near Richfield Springs. Situated on its own private parcel with a shared driveway, this functional home is the perfect opportunity for someone looking to build equity through personalized updates. The interior boasts a large living area and a convenient main-floor bedroom suite. Its location is a major plus—tucked away in the quiet countryside near Jordanville, yet close enough to town for shopping and dining. If you've been looking for an affordable entry into a beautiful area near the lake, this is a must-see with endless potential.

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water available (not connected); Sewer available
• Home design: Two-story existing home
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot approximately 0.65 acres (95 x 300)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (one on the main level; three on the second floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heating: see remarks
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#328 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Richfield Springs Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #575 of 755 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $99k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.24%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,324
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -28.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $25,303
• Equity at exit: $36,448

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $70,776
• Equity at exit: $50,557

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13439

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,303/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $357	+0% $329	+5% $301	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $279	+0% $329	+5% $379	+10% $429
Rate	-1.0pp $379	-0.5pp $354	base $329	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $99,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-04-20
    price $99,000 568-char remark
12. 2025-12-08
    listed $109,000 Active 568-char remark
13. 2005-07-14
    soldstatus $63,500
14. 2000-11-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,488 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,303
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$602
• After-tax cash flow: $3,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richfield Springs Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624570
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,046
• Composite: 40.3/100
• National rank: #7785
• State rank: #575 of 755 in NY

Livability — Richfield Springs

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #5444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,667
• Population (ZIP): 3,667

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Current HPI: 336.0863
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+230.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $99,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-06-08 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $99,000 Global MLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $109,000 Global MLS
• 2005-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records
• 2000-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,303 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.