3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,656 sqft ·
Built 1985
· Townhouse
· Active
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,239/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$398
HOA
−$140
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$470
Net cashflow
$-80/mo
Annual
$-958/yr
Cap rate
5.91%
Cash-on-cash
-1.37%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$69,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-958/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (5.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (10.4% below list).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $224k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Mechanicsburg Area SD (suburban): math 38% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #175 of 539 in PA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mechanicsburg Area Shs (math 72% / reading 24%, grade D, #153 of 437 statewide, top 37%, 1,377 students, 33% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 287 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 67% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $143k; list at $250k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29