331 Pollard Cir

Cadiz, KY 42211

$450,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 337 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,783/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$459
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-1,410/mo
• Annual: $-16,914/yr
• Cap rate: 2.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.42%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.40%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (55.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (60.4% below list).
• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (60.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $385k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?