331 Pollard Cir · Cadiz, KY 42211

$450,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 337 Days on market

Built 1993 4.57 ac lot $363/sqft · 193% above area Est $312k · 44% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream lakefront property! This stunning 5 bed, 3 bath home boasts 2518 square feet on 4.57 acres. Step inside to find a spacious living room, complete with a fireplace and balcony overlooking the water. A kitchen on both the main level and lower level make for easy entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a bathroom on each level and a walkout basement with steps leading to the large deck and private dock. An attached 2 car garage will hold all of your lake toys. A concrete and separate gravel drive offer ample parking. A secluded setting offers the perfect escape for a vacation home, short-term rental, or year-round living. Don't miss the opportunity to own your own piece of paradise!

Key facts

• Large deck
• Lakefront property
• Walkout basement

Tags

• LAKEFRONT PROPERTY
• FIREPLACE
• BALCONY OVERLOOKING WATER
• KITCHEN ON BOTH LEVELS
• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• LARGE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (55.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (60.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (60.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $385k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,340 (60.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.42%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 21.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,901
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: 44.28%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2456 Rockcastle Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	13mo	$219,900	$164	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-162,845
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.05×
• Total profit: $-258,018
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42211

• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 21.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,783 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,253/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-1,410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,568

Max offer price $201,002

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,155	-5% $-1,282	+0% $-1,410	+5% $-1,537	+10% $-1,664
Rent	-10% $-1,550	-5% $-1,480	+0% $-1,410	+5% $-1,339	+10% $-1,269
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,183	-0.5pp $-1,295	base $-1,410	+0.5pp $-1,526	+1.0pp $-1,645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $450,000 Active 337 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 334 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 333 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active 331 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $450,000 Active 330 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 327 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 326 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 325 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $450,000 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 319 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 318 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $450,000 Active 317 DOM
17. 2026-02-04
    price $450,000 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Welcome to your dream lakefront property! This stunning 5 bed, 3 bath home boasts 2518 square feet on 4.57 acres. Step inside to find a spacious living room, complete with a fireplace and balcony overlooking the water. A kitchen on both the main level and lower level make for easy entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a bathroom on each level and a walkout basement with steps leading to the large deck and private dock. An attached 2 car garage will hold all of your lake toys. A concrete and separate gravel drive offer ample parking. A secluded setting offers the perfect escape for a vacation home, short-term rental, or year-round living. Don't miss the opportunity to own your own piece of paradise!

18. 2025-08-21
    price $488,000 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Welcome to your dream lakefront property! This stunning 5 bed, 3 bath home boasts 2518 square feet on 4.57 acres. Step inside to find a spacious living room, complete with a fireplace and balcony overlooking the water. A kitchen on both the main level and lower level make for easy entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a bathroom on each level and a walkout basement with steps leading to the large deck and private dock. An attached 2 car garage will hold all of your lake toys. A concrete and separate gravel drive offer ample parking. A secluded setting offers the perfect escape for a vacation home, short-term rental, or year-round living. Don't miss the opportunity to own your own piece of paradise!

19. 2025-07-17
    listed $498,000 Active 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Welcome to your dream lakefront property! This stunning 5 bed, 3 bath home boasts 2518 square feet on 4.57 acres. Step inside to find a spacious living room, complete with a fireplace and balcony overlooking the water. A kitchen on both the main level and lower level make for easy entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a bathroom on each level and a walkout basement with steps leading to the large deck and private dock. An attached 2 car garage will hold all of your lake toys. A concrete and separate gravel drive offer ample parking. A secluded setting offers the perfect escape for a vacation home, short-term rental, or year-round living. Don't miss the opportunity to own your own piece of paradise!

20. 2025-01-21
    price $550,000
21. 2024-08-24
    price $599,000
22. 2024-08-06
    price $619,000
23. 2024-06-21
    listed $639,000 Active
24. 2021-12-14
    soldstatus $385,000
25. 2021-12-09
    soldstatus $385,000
26. 2021-12-09
    soldstatus $385,000
27. 2021-09-16
    listed $399,900
28. 2021-09-14
    listed $399,900
29. 2018-05-31
    soldstatus $230,000
30. 2018-05-30
    soldstatus $230,000
31. 2017-01-31
    listed $236,000
32. 2016-03-23
    listed $269,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,253 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,870 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: +$617/yr (+$51/mo · 19.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$3,253
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,712
• − Management: −$1,712
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$25,824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,198
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trigg County
• NCES district ID: 2105580
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,636
• Composite: 26.87/100
• National rank: #7100
• State rank: #90 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cadiz

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #16772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,912

Population outlook (Trigg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,071 people
• By 2030: 13,950 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 13,575 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 13,065 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 11,990 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 10,802 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trigg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.2% · R 75.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.15%
• Current HPI: 130.8351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $450,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $488,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $498,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $550,000 WKRMLS
• 2024-08-24 Price Changed $599,000 WKRMLS
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $619,000 WKRMLS
• 2024-06-21 Listed $639,000 WKRMLS
• 2021-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-09 Sold (MLS) $385,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-09 Sold (MLS) $385,000 HCTCBOR
• 2021-09-16 Listed $399,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-14 Listed $399,900 HCTCBOR
• 2018-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-30 Sold (MLS) $230,000 WKRMLS
• 2017-01-31 Listed $236,000 WKRMLS
• 2016-03-23 Listed $269,900 WKRMLS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,253 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.