4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,933 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 163 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,102/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,785
Tax + insurance
−$885
HOA
−$63
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$651
Net cashflow
$-1,282/mo
Annual
$-15,383/yr
Cap rate
3.40%
Cash-on-cash
-10.35%
DSCR
0.54
1% rule
0.58%
Cash to close
$148,677
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $531k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (34.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (41.6% below list).
It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($467k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $310k (41.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Nampa School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #82 of 92 in ID (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Greenhurst Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #352 of 357 statewide, top 99%, 259 students, 56% FRL); South Middle School (math 24% / reading 41%, grade F, #88 of 109 statewide, top 81%, 675 students, 41% FRL); Skyview High School (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #100 of 169 statewide, top 61%, 1,152 students, 32% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 1081 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PC427W92XW54B1
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29