4591 Mohican Trl #137

Bee Ridge, FL 34233

$185,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · Built 1973 · Townhouse · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,269/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$435
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $192/mo
• Annual: $2,308/yr
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#370 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ashton Elementary School (math 89% / reading 87%, grade A+, #18 of 2,144 statewide, top 1%, 1,046 students, 28% FRL); Sarasota High School (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,528 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.