23 Williamson Rd

Ashland, AL 36251

$129,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $892/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $-193/mo
• Annual: $-2,316/yr
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.37%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#471 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clay County (rural): math 15% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #88 of 129 in AL (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ashland Elementary School (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #387 of 627 statewide, top 62%, 486 students, 77% FRL); Central High School of Clay County (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #242 of 305 statewide, top 80%, 524 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 55% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.