23 Williamson Rd · Ashland, AL 36251

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily · 54 Days on market

Built 1900 0.29 ac lot $131/sqft · 14% below area Est $152k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath home perfectly situated on a flat corner lot! Conveniently located next to Williamson Field and Ashland City Park, this property offers both comfort and location. Step inside to a fresh, neutral color scheme that complements any style. The updated kitchen features brand new cabinets, gorgeous countertops, and stainless steel appliances; ready for everyday living or entertaining. This home is a great opportunity whether you’re looking for a primary residence or an investment. Don’t miss your chance to own this move-in ready home in a great location!

Key facts

• Gorgeous countertops
• Updated kitchen
• Flat corner lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BRAND NEW CABINETS
• GORGEOUS COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FLAT CORNER LOT
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Parking on main level
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Electric water heater; Internet service availability unknown
• Home design: Existing single-family property; Crawl space foundation; Concrete/block construction
• Construction: Concrete/block construction; Crawl space foundation; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Covered patio; No pool; No waterfront or notable view; 0.29 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Built-in dishwasher; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Smooth ceilings; No additional built-in interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Utility sink; Electric dryer hookup; Pull-down attic access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $89k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#471 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clay County (rural): math 15% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #88 of 129 in AL (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ashland Elementary School (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #387 of 627 statewide, top 62%, 486 students, 77% FRL); Central High School of Clay County (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #242 of 305 statewide, top 80%, 524 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 55% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,202 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.37%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,879
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -14.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
490 County Road 31	0.47mi	2/1.0	988 (0%)	20mo	$115,000	$116	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $39,935
• Equity at exit: $97,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $124,991
• Equity at exit: $191,857

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36251

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $101,971

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-04-26
    listed $129,900 Active 620-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$856
• − Management: −$856
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$4,662
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay County
• NCES district ID: 0100750
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,719
• Composite: 21.53/100
• National rank: #8315
• State rank: #88 of 129 in AL

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #24069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, AL
• Population (ZIP): 5,146

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,758 people
• By 2030: 12,233 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 11,105 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 9,935 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 7,615 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 5,715 · -55.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.2) · D 14.7% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.3pp · 2024: -70.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.2 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+60.8 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+47.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.84%
• Current HPI: 193.2598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $129,900 Greater Alabama MLS