2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
957 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Condo
· Active
· 214 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,840/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,559
Tax + insurance
−$1,240
HOA
−$1,397
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,437
Net cashflow
$208/mo
Annual
$2,496/yr
Cap rate
7.85%
Cash-on-cash
5.57%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
1.40%
Cash to close
$136,640
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $488k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $488k).
It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($429k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $429k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: The Sanibel School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 2,144 statewide, top 0%, 289 students, 12% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 20% of rent.
Market conditions: 582 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.6% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $6,840/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($123k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
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· Data 6 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29