865 N Glen Oaks Dr

Alpine, CA 91901

$190,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1960 · Land · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,354/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$442
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $421/mo
• Annual: $5,057/yr
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.33%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#711 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, commute A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 85 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $190k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 1.4% in Alpine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.