865 N Glen Oaks Dr · Alpine, CA 91901

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Land · 36 Days on market

Built 1960

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity for investors FIXER FIXER FIXER SOLD AS IS CONDITION, It is in a flood zone area, Need a septic tank, Lowest comps are in 500K

Key facts

• 4 parking spots
• Built 1960
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in the Glen Oaks subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: No utilities information provided; No sewer information provided
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Residential property; 1 story
• Construction: Built detached (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: No roof information provided

Interior

• Bedrooms: Space for 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One-story layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 1.4% in Alpine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#711 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, commute A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 85 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $190k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.33%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,511
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $17
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91901

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,821

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1750 Arnold Way Alpine, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,202	$3.15	1d	6	1.11mi
1829 Arnold Way Alpine, CA	2.0	2.0	987	$2,738	$2.77	1d	7	1.37mi
1539 Tavern Rd Alpine, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,379	$2.64	1d	12	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $190,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $190,000 Active
15. 2021-01-18
    soldstatus $99,900 Closed Sale 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Great Opportunity for investors FIXER FIXER FIXER SOLD AS IS CONDITION, It is in a flood zone area, Need a septic tank, Lowest comps are in 500K

16. 2021-01-07
    status Pending Sale 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Great Opportunity for investors FIXER FIXER FIXER SOLD AS IS CONDITION, It is in a flood zone area, Need a septic tank, Lowest comps are in 500K

17. 2021-01-07
    status Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Great Opportunity for investors FIXER FIXER FIXER SOLD AS IS CONDITION, It is in a flood zone area, Need a septic tank, Lowest comps are in 500K

18. 2021-01-04
    listed $99,999 Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Great Opportunity for investors FIXER FIXER FIXER SOLD AS IS CONDITION, It is in a flood zone area, Need a septic tank, Lowest comps are in 500K

19. 2019-07-03
    historical
20. 2017-03-09
    listed $99,000
21. 2013-10-03
    historical
22. 2013-04-03
    listed $69,000
23. 2005-12-20
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$2,452
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $2,256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$541
• After-tax cash flow: $4,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alpine

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #711
• US rank: #21327

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alpine, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 18,197
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 18,197
• Household income: $114,167
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 417.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -453.14%
• Current HPI: 320.0778
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+533.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $190,000 SDMLS
• 2021-01-18 Sold (MLS) $99,900 CRMLS
• 2021-01-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-01-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2021-01-04 Listed $99,999 CRMLS
• 2019-07-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-03-09 Listed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2013-10-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2013-04-03 Listed $69,000 CRMLS
• 2005-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $107 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.