408 W 9th St

Denver City, TX 79323

$99,000C+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,872 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 272 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,326/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $252/mo
• Annual: $3,030/yr
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.93%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 272 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#223 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Denver City ISD (town): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #547 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Yoakum County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yoakum County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 272 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.