408 W 9th St · Denver City, TX 79323

$99,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 272 Days on market

7,980 sqft lot $34/sqft · 80% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is an excellent investment opportunity being sold as-is, offering great potential for renovation or as a rental!

Key facts

• 7,980 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 272 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#223 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Denver City ISD (town): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #547 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Yoakum County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yoakum County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 272 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 272 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.93%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,578
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -74.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $127
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $21,175
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79323

• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,811/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2025-08-27
   listed $99,000 Active 126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   This property is an excellent investment opportunity being sold as-is, offering great potential for renovation or as a rental!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,811 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,811 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,811
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,273
• − Management: −$1,273
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,630
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$391
• After-tax cash flow: $2,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denver City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816770
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,908
• Composite: 28.74/100
• National rank: #6677
• State rank: #547 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denver City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #223
• US rank: #5491

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denver City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,115

Population outlook (Yoakum County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,976 people
• By 2030: 10,821 · +8.5%
• By 2040: 12,727 · +27.6%
• By 2050: 14,807 · +48.4%
• By 2075: 20,536 · +105.9%
• By 2100: 24,737 · +148.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 30% White 26% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Common ancestry: German 3% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 52% German/W. Germanic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Yoakum

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.9) · D 14.3% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -62.6pp · 2024: -70.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.9 2020: R+66.7 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+60.6 2008: R+62.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.51%
• Current HPI: 138.436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-27 Listed $99,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,811 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.