3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,070 sqft ·
Built 1979
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 18 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,577/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$697
Tax + insurance
−$125
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$331
Net cashflow
$423/mo
Annual
$5,077/yr
Cap rate
10.11%
Cash-on-cash
13.63%
DSCR
1.61
1% rule
1.19%
Cash to close
$37,240
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $133k).
It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $131k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $920 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 55/100 on livability (#413 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
West Memphis School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 238 in AR (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Crittenden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Crittenden County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $50k; list at $133k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 7.0% in West Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PD95ND3K154VQR
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29