405 1st Ave NW

Mandan, ND 58554

$219,900D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,987 sqft · Built 1939 · Other · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,830/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$305
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-155/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-155/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (16.8% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $183k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#76 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mandan 1 (suburban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #32 of 53 in ND (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roosevelt Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #162 of 236 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 38% FRL); Mandan Middle School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #21 of 35 statewide, top 59%, 928 students, 30% FRL); Mandan High School (math 18% / reading 42%, grade F, #90 of 144 statewide, top 66%, 1,138 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.0%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 94 units permitted in Morton County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morton County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.7% in Mandan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.