405 1st Ave NW · Mandan, ND 58554

$219,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,987 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Built 1939 4,792 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Beautiful built-ins
• Recently refreshed
• Rich woodwork

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• RICH WOODWORK
• BEAUTIFUL BUILT-INS
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• UPPER-LEVEL LAUNDRY ROOM
• RECENTLY REFRESHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Three or more levels; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Concrete basement
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Private yard; Permeable paving; Dog run; Patio; Porch; Landscaped lot; Private lot; Public maintained road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Ceiling fans; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Basement with concrete floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-155/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.7% in Mandan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#76 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mandan 1 (suburban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #32 of 53 in ND (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roosevelt Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #162 of 236 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 38% FRL); Mandan Middle School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #21 of 35 statewide, top 59%, 928 students, 30% FRL); Mandan High School (math 18% / reading 42%, grade F, #90 of 144 statewide, top 66%, 1,138 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.0%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 94 units permitted in Morton County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morton County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $182,980 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-26,798
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $19,576
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58554

• Rents YoY: 14.0%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,564/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,846

Max offer price $217,614

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $219,900 Active
3. 2026-02-03
   price $219,900
4. 2023-11-03
   price $195,000
5. 2017-09-29
   soldstatus
6. 2017-09-29
   soldstatus
7. 2017-07-31
   listed $189,900
8. 1999-09-24
   soldstatus
9. 1999-04-29
   listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,564 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,564 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,564
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$944
• After-tax cash flow: $789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mandan 1
• NCES district ID: 3811820
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,131
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5692
• State rank: #32 of 53 in ND

Livability — Mandan

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #7567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mandan, ND
• County: Morton County · 29,479 people
• City population: 29,479
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 29,479
• Household income: $80,120
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 915.0

Population outlook (Morton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,682 people
• By 2030: 39,967 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 46,921 · +27.9%
• By 2050: 54,157 · +47.6%
• By 2075: 73,661 · +100.8%
• By 2100: 89,885 · +145.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scotch-Irish 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.2% · R 75.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+50.4 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.81%
• Current HPI: 137.8984
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+175.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $219,900 GNMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $219,900 GNMLS
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $195,000 GNMLS
• 2017-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-29 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2017-07-31 Listed $189,900 GNMLS
• 1999-09-24 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-04-29 Listed $79,900 GNMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,564 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.