618 W 1st St

Crosbyton, TX 79322

$138,500D-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $998/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$726
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-182/mo
• Annual: $-2,184/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $38,780

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (27.9% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($958 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,147 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Crosbyton CISD (rural): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,055 of 1,141 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crosbyton El (math 15% / reading 24%).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP.
• Crosby County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.