618 W 1st St · Crosbyton, TX 79322

$138,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1950 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 618 W 1st Street — a rare opportunity to own a spacious 5-acre property in Crosbyton offering privacy, flexibility, and incredible potential. This two-story home features 4 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, with a functional layout designed to accommodate a variety of living needs. The main level offers comfortable everyday living, while the second story includes two additional rooms that can serve as bedrooms, playrooms, home offices, or versatile flex spaces. The property has seen several key updates, including a new water heater installed in 2022, a brand-new sewer line completed in 2024, and a recently installed exterior electrical box—providing added peace of mind on majo

Key facts

• Two hvac units
• New water heater
• 5 acre property

Tags

• 5 ACRE PROPERTY
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW SEWER LINE
• EXTERIOR ELECTRICAL BOX
• TWO HVAC UNITS
• STORAGE SHED WITH ELECTRICITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport
• Utilities: Utilities not specifically listed
• Home design: Single-family residence; 2 stories; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Built in earlier construction (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Storage; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling fan(s) and electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,147 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Crosbyton CISD (rural): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,055 of 1,141 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crosbyton El (math 15% / reading 24%).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($958 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Crosby County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,839 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $51,924
• Equity at exit: $112,069

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $159,866
• Equity at exit: $229,325

Cash invested: $38,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79322

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$726
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,240/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $106,355

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-104	-5% $-143	+0% $-182	+5% $-221	+10% $-260
Rent	-10% $-261	-5% $-221	+0% $-182	+5% $-143	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-147	base $-182	+0.5pp $-218	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,625
• Closing costs: $4,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,500 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,500 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,500 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,500 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,500 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,500 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,500 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $138,500 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,500 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $138,500 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $138,500 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $138,500 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $138,500 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,500 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,500 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,500 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $138,500 Active 1286-char remark
18. 2024-12-26
    soldstatus
19. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus
20. 2019-01-03
    soldstatus
21. 2014-03-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,240 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,535 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$294/yr (+$25/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,240
• − Insurance: −$692
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$958
• − Management: −$958
• − Depreciation: −$4,029
• Taxable loss: −$4,656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,117
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosbyton CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800001
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,076
• Composite: 25.82/100
• National rank: #12789
• State rank: #1055 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Crosbyton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1147
• US rank: #20185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crosbyton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,945

Population outlook (Crosby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,795 people
• By 2030: 5,626 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 5,198 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 4,696 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 3,250 · -43.9%
• By 2100: 2,123 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 34% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crosby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.3) · D 24.0% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.1pp · 2024: -51.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.3 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.72%
• Current HPI: 114.2754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $138,500 LARMLS
• 2024-12-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,240 · +46.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.