221 Holly Hill Dr

Rogersville, TN 37857

$48,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,051 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $907/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax + insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $398/mo
• Annual: $4,781/yr
• Cap rate: 16.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.57%
• DSCR: 2.58
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $13,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($907 rent vs $48k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($332 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#168 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hawkins Elementary (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #630 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 290 students, 0% FRL); Rogersville Middle School (math 15% / reading 16%, grade F, #229 of 333 statewide, top 69%, 382 students, 0% FRL); Cherokee High School (math 17% / reading 36%, grade F, #112 of 332 statewide, top 35%, 1,055 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 2.8% in Rogersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.