221 Holly Hill Dr · Rogersville, TN 37857

$48,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,051 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1950 0.48 ac lot $46/sqft · 80% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ranch style house built in 1950. Convenient location just a couple miles to the Historic Town of Rogersville. Potential here at a great price. ''Due to condition, the property may have health/safety risk(s). Prior to entry / access, all parties must sign a Hold Harmless Agreement, and the property may only be shown by appointment''.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Fixer condition
• Construction: Stone and vinyl siding exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Sloped lot; Residential zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($907 rent vs $48k).
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 2.8% in Rogersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#168 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hawkins Elementary (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #630 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 290 students, 0% FRL); Rogersville Middle School (math 15% / reading 16%, grade F, #229 of 333 statewide, top 69%, 382 students, 0% FRL); Cherokee High School (math 17% / reading 36%, grade F, #112 of 332 statewide, top 35%, 1,055 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($332 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.57%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,199
• List price: $48,000
• Delta: -80.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 Western Heights Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-1%)	10mo	$184,150	$177	69
309 Western Heights Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,160 (+10%)	8mo	$249,500	$215	52
218 Livesay Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+14%)	13mo	$262,000	$219	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $32,800
• Equity at exit: $23,324

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $79,244
• Equity at exit: $37,362

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37857

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $907 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $559/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $403

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $426	-5% $412	+0% $398	+5% $385	+10% $371
Rent	-10% $327	-5% $363	+0% $398	+5% $434	+10% $470
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $411	base $398	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Arrowhead Dr Rogersville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0	816	$886	$1.09	22d	1	0.50mi
211 Dodge Dr Apt C2 Rogersville, TN	2.0	1.0	780	$910	$1.17	44d	1	0.99mi
303 Farside Dr Unit 5 Rogersville, TN	2.0	1.0	790	$950	$1.20	44d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $48,000 Active 334-char remark
2. 2018-12-28
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$559
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$871
• − Management: −$871
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $4,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $3,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins County
• NCES district ID: 4701740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,555
• Composite: 20.45/100
• National rank: #8581
• State rank: #93 of 139 in TN

Livability — Rogersville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #14424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,425

Population outlook (Hawkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,226 people
• By 2030: 53,784 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 50,015 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 45,682 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 36,211 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 26,536 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 331.2027
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $48,000 TVRMLS
• 2018-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $559 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.