2 W Lake St

Celoron, NY 14720

$39,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 641 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $847/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $394/mo
• Annual: $4,723/yr
• Cap rate: 18.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.27%
• DSCR: 2.88
• 1% rule: 2.12%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($847 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $908 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#320 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Southwestern Central School District At Jamestown (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #373 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southwestern Elementary School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 583 students, 36% FRL); Southwestern Middle School (math 26% / reading 55%, grade F, #409 of 729 statewide, top 56%, 307 students, 39% FRL); Southwestern Senior High School (math 98% / reading 95%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 429 students, 40% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior siding — Significant damage visible
• Major: Windows — Damaged and broken glass
• Major: Foundation/structure — No photos, but poor exterior condition suggests structural issues