2 W Lake St · Celoron, NY 14720

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 641 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 1910 Poor condition 800 sqft lot $62/sqft · 66% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home in need of some TLC. This Village of Celoron year round home features a 3 year old roof, vinyl windows, and an updated furnace. This handyman special is perfect for the hard worker that likes to enjoy CHQ Lake, walk to get ice cream, and enjoy the park!! Park your boat at the local marina which is only steps away. CASH OFFERS ONLY!! SOLD AS IS WHERE IS!!

Key facts

• Built 1910
• Listed 52 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Resale condition; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Irregular residential lot; 20 x 40 lot dimensions; City street frontage

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Hardwood and varied flooring throughout; Full basement; Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($847 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#320 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Southwestern Central School District At Jamestown (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #373 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $908 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.27%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,221
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -65.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 E Lake St	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	648 (+1%)	4mo	$40,000	$62	85
67 Boulevard Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0	634 (-1%)	21mo	$95,000	$150	71
141 Longview Ave	0.33mi	1/1.5 (-1)	620 (-3%)	9mo	$265,000	$427	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $19,837
• Equity at exit: $7,250

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $50,679
• Equity at exit: $5,726

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14720

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $847 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $407	+0% $394	+5% $380	+10% $366
Rent	-10% $327	-5% $360	+0% $394	+5% $427	+10% $461
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $404	base $394	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $39,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $45,000 Active 178-char remark
18. 2022-09-21
    soldstatus $33,500 Closed Sale or Rented 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Cute 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home in need of some TLC. This Village of Celoron year round home features a 3 year old roof, vinyl windows, and an updated furnace. This handyman special is perfect for the hard worker that likes to enjoy CHQ Lake, walk to get ice cream, and enjoy the park!! Park your boat at the local marina which is only steps away. CASH OFFERS ONLY!! SOLD AS IS WHERE IS!!

19. 2022-08-15
    status Pending Sale 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Cute 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home in need of some TLC. This Village of Celoron year round home features a 3 year old roof, vinyl windows, and an updated furnace. This handyman special is perfect for the hard worker that likes to enjoy CHQ Lake, walk to get ice cream, and enjoy the park!! Park your boat at the local marina which is only steps away. CASH OFFERS ONLY!! SOLD AS IS WHERE IS!!

20. 2022-08-11
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Cute 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home in need of some TLC. This Village of Celoron year round home features a 3 year old roof, vinyl windows, and an updated furnace. This handyman special is perfect for the hard worker that likes to enjoy CHQ Lake, walk to get ice cream, and enjoy the park!! Park your boat at the local marina which is only steps away. CASH OFFERS ONLY!! SOLD AS IS WHERE IS!!

21. 2022-08-09
    listed $29,900 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Cute 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home in need of some TLC. This Village of Celoron year round home features a 3 year old roof, vinyl windows, and an updated furnace. This handyman special is perfect for the hard worker that likes to enjoy CHQ Lake, walk to get ice cream, and enjoy the park!! Park your boat at the local marina which is only steps away. CASH OFFERS ONLY!! SOLD AS IS WHERE IS!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$813
• − Management: −$813
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $4,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,043
• After-tax cash flow: $3,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding, windows, and landscaping, to become move-in ready. Significant potential exists with proper renovation.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Significant damage visible
• Major Windows — Damaged and broken glass
• Major Foundation/structure — No photos, but poor exterior condition suggests structural issues

Value-add opportunities

• Both Exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both Window replacement — Enhances safety and energy efficiency
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves first impression and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Significant damage visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Damaged and broken glass	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No photos, but poor exterior condition suggests structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both Window replacement — Enhances safety and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves first impression and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwestern Central School District At Jamestown
• NCES district ID: 3627660
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,567
• Composite: 43.21/100
• National rank: #3062
• State rank: #373 of 590 in NY

Livability — Celoron

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #320
• US rank: #5307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celoron, NY
• City population: 853
• Population (ZIP): 853

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.27%
• Current HPI: 249.0282
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $39,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $45,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-09-21 Sold (MLS) $33,500 UNYREIS
• 2022-08-15 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2022-08-11 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2022-08-09 Listed $29,900 UNYREIS