3438 12th St

New York, NY 11106

$1,375,000C

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,264 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Pending · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,211
• Tax + insurance: −$969
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,604
• Net cashflow: $1,617/mo
• Annual: $19,399/yr
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.04%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $385,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.38M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $808/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.24M (9.8% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.29M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.24M (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $217k; list at $1.38M implies a 534% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $385k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$96k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $12,400/mo this rent would consume 175% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 3679% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?