3438 12th St · New York, NY 11106

$1,375,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,264 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1910 2,523 sqft lot Est $1270k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Well-maintained brick 2-family home built in 2005 offering a fantastic investment opportunity! This property features two spacious units, making it ideal for investors or owner-occupants. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, public transportation, and everyday amenities. Situated in a neighborhood experiencing ongoing transformation and growth, adding long-term value and potential. A great opportunity you don’t want to miss!

Key facts

• Two spacious units
• Brick 2-family home
• Conveniently located

Tags

• BRICK 2-FAMILY HOME
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• TWO SPACIOUS UNITS
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private parking for 2 vehicles; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available; Sewer available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: One 2-bedroom unit; One 3-bedroom unit
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling; Other heating features
• Interior features: Finished full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.38M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $727/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.22M (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.22M (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,195/mo this rent would consume 172% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 3679% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $385k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$96k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.29M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $217k; list at $1.38M implies a 534% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,219,500 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,270,104
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1442 33rd Ave	0.28mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,301 (+2%)	13mo	$1,290,000	$561	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.06% appreciation · 7.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $245,565
• Equity at exit: $547,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $928,421
• Equity at exit: $791,558

Cash invested: $385,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11106

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 18.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,195 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,211
• Tax from tax record: −$396 /mo · $4,750/yr
• Insurance: −$573
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,561
• Net cashflow: $1,455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,354

Max offer price $1,375,000

Occupancy floor 83%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$12,196
Total (2 units)			$12,195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $343,750
• Closing costs: $41,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
422 E 72nd St Unit 32DE New York, NY	4.0	4.5	3368	$40,000	$11.88	24d	1	0.93mi
344 E 84th St #1 New York, NY	3.0	2.5	2100	$14,000	$6.67	22d	1	1.12mi
2812 37th St Astoria, NY	3.0	1.5	2200	$4,700	$2.14	19d	1	1.18mi
200 E 69th St New York, NY	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1958	$20,000	$10.21	2d	2	1.26mi
420 E 54th St New York, NY	3.0	1.0–2.5	1104	$13,336	$12.07	1d	14	1.43mi
320 E 55th St New York, NY	4.0	4.5	3350	$24,500	$7.31	24d	1	1.48mi
320 E 55th St New York, NY	4.0	4.5	3350	$20,000	$5.97	15d	1	1.48mi
120 E 87th St Unit R18BC New York, NY	3.0	3.0	2700	$24,000	$8.89	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $1,375,000 Pending 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1,375,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-03-09
   listed $1,375,000 Active
7. 2025-11-01
   historical
8. 2025-04-29
   listed $1,399,999 Active
9. 2021-01-10
   historical
10. 2020-06-13
    price $1,489,000
11. 2020-01-11
    listed $1,499,000 New
12. 2017-06-02
    historical
13. 2017-03-23
    price $1,375,000
14. 2016-07-21
    price $1,395,000
15. 2016-06-01
    listed $1,500,000 New
16. 2016-05-24
    historical
17. 2016-05-17
    listed $1,500,000 New
18. 2002-01-29
    soldstatus $217,000
19. 1999-08-16
    soldstatus $240,000
20. 1999-08-04
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,750 · $396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,994 · $1,166/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,244/yr (+$770/mo · 194.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $146,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$77,021
• − Property taxes: −$4,750
• − Insurance: −$6,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,707
• − Management: −$11,707
• − Depreciation: −$40,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,373
• After-tax cash flow: $18,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 40,930
• Household income: $84,867
• Rent vs Own: 83.4% rent · 16.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3679.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 19% Two or more races 12% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 13% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.06%
• Current HPI: 348.3009
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1045.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $1,375,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-29 Listed $1,399,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-13 Price Changed $1,489,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-11 Listed $1,499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-23 Price Changed $1,375,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-21 Price Changed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-01 Listed $1,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-24 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-17 Listed $1,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $217,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,750 · -51.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.