299 River Rd

Fairfax, VT 05454

$199,900D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,222 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Active · 285 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,682/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$399
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-118/mo
• Annual: $-1,420/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#77 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: cost of living D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Bellows Free Academy Elementary (Fairfax) (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #121 of 192 statewide, top 63%, 624 students, 14% FRL); Bellows Free Academy Middle/High School (Fairfax) (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #18 of 48 statewide, top 38%, 415 students, 16% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 200 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.6% in Fairfax — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?