299 River Rd · Fairfax, VT 05454

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,222 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 285 Days on market

Built 1880 2.00 ac lot $90/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into history with this charming 1880 farmhouse nestled alongside the Lamoille River. With 2,222 square feet of living space, this 3-bedroom home offers warmth and character throughout-including a rustic barnboard accented living room and cozy wood stove perfect for Vermont winters. A forth bedroom and an additional bathroom space - once started but now unfinished - offer potential for expansion or customization. Close proximity to the town center, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're seeking a restoration project or a unique property with old charm, this home is full of possibilities. Seller and agency have no knowledge of systems, buyer responsible to verify all data. Property to be sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Lamoille river
• Cozy wood stove
• 1880 farmhouse

Tags

• 1880 FARMHOUSE
• LAMOILLE RIVER
• RUSTIC BARNBOARD
• COZY WOOD STOVE
• POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO TOWN CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.6% in Fairfax — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#77 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: cost of living D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Bellows Free Academy Elementary (Fairfax) (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #121 of 192 statewide, top 63%, 624 students, 14% FRL); Bellows Free Academy Middle/High School (Fairfax) (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #18 of 48 statewide, top 38%, 415 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 200 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,172 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $534,003
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -62.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-39,862
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-44,148
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05454

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,117/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,831

Max offer price $178,999

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-62	+0% $-118	+5% $-175	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-185	+0% $-118	+5% $-52	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-67	base $-118	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 277 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,900 Active 276 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 273 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 272 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 271 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 270 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 267 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 266 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 265 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 264 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    price $199,900 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Step into history with this charming 1880 farmhouse nestled alongside the Lamoille River. With 2,222 square feet of living space, this 3-bedroom home offers warmth and character throughout-including a rustic barnboard accented living room and cozy wood stove perfect for Vermont winters. A forth bedroom and an additional bathroom space - once started but now unfinished - offer potential for expansion or customization. Close proximity to the town center, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're seeking a restoration project or a unique property with old charm, this home is full of possibilities. Seller and agency have no knowledge of systems, buyer responsible to verify all data. Property to be sold AS-IS.

19. 2026-04-14
    price $209,900 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Step into history with this charming 1880 farmhouse nestled alongside the Lamoille River. With 2,222 square feet of living space, this 3-bedroom home offers warmth and character throughout-including a rustic barnboard accented living room and cozy wood stove perfect for Vermont winters. A forth bedroom and an additional bathroom space - once started but now unfinished - offer potential for expansion or customization. Close proximity to the town center, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're seeking a restoration project or a unique property with old charm, this home is full of possibilities. Seller and agency have no knowledge of systems, buyer responsible to verify all data. Property to be sold AS-IS.

20. 2026-03-04
    price $224,900 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Step into history with this charming 1880 farmhouse nestled alongside the Lamoille River. With 2,222 square feet of living space, this 3-bedroom home offers warmth and character throughout-including a rustic barnboard accented living room and cozy wood stove perfect for Vermont winters. A forth bedroom and an additional bathroom space - once started but now unfinished - offer potential for expansion or customization. Close proximity to the town center, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're seeking a restoration project or a unique property with old charm, this home is full of possibilities. Seller and agency have no knowledge of systems, buyer responsible to verify all data. Property to be sold AS-IS.

21. 2026-01-08
    status Active 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Step into history with this charming 1880 farmhouse nestled alongside the Lamoille River. With 2,222 square feet of living space, this 3-bedroom home offers warmth and character throughout-including a rustic barnboard accented living room and cozy wood stove perfect for Vermont winters. A forth bedroom and an additional bathroom space - once started but now unfinished - offer potential for expansion or customization. Close proximity to the town center, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're seeking a restoration project or a unique property with old charm, this home is full of possibilities. Seller and agency have no knowledge of systems, buyer responsible to verify all data. Property to be sold AS-IS.

22. 2025-11-07
    status Pending 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Step into history with this charming 1880 farmhouse nestled alongside the Lamoille River. With 2,222 square feet of living space, this 3-bedroom home offers warmth and character throughout-including a rustic barnboard accented living room and cozy wood stove perfect for Vermont winters. A forth bedroom and an additional bathroom space - once started but now unfinished - offer potential for expansion or customization. Close proximity to the town center, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're seeking a restoration project or a unique property with old charm, this home is full of possibilities. Seller and agency have no knowledge of systems, buyer responsible to verify all data. Property to be sold AS-IS.

23. 2025-10-09
    price $244,900 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Step into history with this charming 1880 farmhouse nestled alongside the Lamoille River. With 2,222 square feet of living space, this 3-bedroom home offers warmth and character throughout-including a rustic barnboard accented living room and cozy wood stove perfect for Vermont winters. A forth bedroom and an additional bathroom space - once started but now unfinished - offer potential for expansion or customization. Close proximity to the town center, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're seeking a restoration project or a unique property with old charm, this home is full of possibilities. Seller and agency have no knowledge of systems, buyer responsible to verify all data. Property to be sold AS-IS.

24. 2025-09-06
    price $259,900 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Step into history with this charming 1880 farmhouse nestled alongside the Lamoille River. With 2,222 square feet of living space, this 3-bedroom home offers warmth and character throughout-including a rustic barnboard accented living room and cozy wood stove perfect for Vermont winters. A forth bedroom and an additional bathroom space - once started but now unfinished - offer potential for expansion or customization. Close proximity to the town center, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're seeking a restoration project or a unique property with old charm, this home is full of possibilities. Seller and agency have no knowledge of systems, buyer responsible to verify all data. Property to be sold AS-IS.

25. 2025-08-13
    price $279,900 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Step into history with this charming 1880 farmhouse nestled alongside the Lamoille River. With 2,222 square feet of living space, this 3-bedroom home offers warmth and character throughout-including a rustic barnboard accented living room and cozy wood stove perfect for Vermont winters. A forth bedroom and an additional bathroom space - once started but now unfinished - offer potential for expansion or customization. Close proximity to the town center, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're seeking a restoration project or a unique property with old charm, this home is full of possibilities. Seller and agency have no knowledge of systems, buyer responsible to verify all data. Property to be sold AS-IS.

26. 2025-07-08
    listed $299,900 Active 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Step into history with this charming 1880 farmhouse nestled alongside the Lamoille River. With 2,222 square feet of living space, this 3-bedroom home offers warmth and character throughout-including a rustic barnboard accented living room and cozy wood stove perfect for Vermont winters. A forth bedroom and an additional bathroom space - once started but now unfinished - offer potential for expansion or customization. Close proximity to the town center, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're seeking a restoration project or a unique property with old charm, this home is full of possibilities. Seller and agency have no knowledge of systems, buyer responsible to verify all data. Property to be sold AS-IS.

27. 2014-09-11
    soldstatus $230,000
28. 2014-09-08
    soldstatus $230,000 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    Completely remodeled, totally turnkey turn-of-the-century farmhouse, on two private acres abutting conservation land and the Lamoille River - ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE. Extensive 2013 renovations include a brand new kitchen and all new appliances - even a cast iron farmhouse sink and oak floors. New septic in 2004, vinyl siding and metal roof added in 2009, new hot water tank in 2010, new energy efficient windows and slider in 2011, new insulation and den addition in 2013-and that's not all! There's even a bonus room with a second wood-burning stove for you to transform into a guest suite, game room, family room-you choose. Outside you'll find a brand new 53'x10' deck on which to grill, dine or relax. The yard offers blueberries, apple trees, a chicken coop, a 16x10 shed (built in 2007) and 187 feet of river frontage, all of which translate into your homestead oasis within 35 minutes of Burlington.

29. 2014-07-15
    listed $234,000 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    Completely remodeled, totally turnkey turn-of-the-century farmhouse, on two private acres abutting conservation land and the Lamoille River - ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE. Extensive 2013 renovations include a brand new kitchen and all new appliances - even a cast iron farmhouse sink and oak floors. New septic in 2004, vinyl siding and metal roof added in 2009, new hot water tank in 2010, new energy efficient windows and slider in 2011, new insulation and den addition in 2013-and that's not all! There's even a bonus room with a second wood-burning stove for you to transform into a guest suite, game room, family room-you choose. Outside you'll find a brand new 53'x10' deck on which to grill, dine or relax. The yard offers blueberries, apple trees, a chicken coop, a 16x10 shed (built in 2007) and 187 feet of river frontage, all of which translate into your homestead oasis within 35 minutes of Burlington.

30. 2009-12-22
    soldstatus $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,117 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,458 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$341/yr (+$28/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,117
• − Insurance: −$1,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,844
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,163
• After-tax cash flow: $-257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Fairfax

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #17717

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,195

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,374 people
• By 2030: 50,718 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 50,557 · +0.4%
• By 2050: 48,832 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 43,526 · -13.6%
• By 2100: 33,970 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 47.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: 24.8pp · 2024: 3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.0 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+3.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.95%
• Current HPI: 333.3228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $199,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $209,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $224,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-07 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $244,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $259,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $279,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $299,900 PrimeMLS
• 2014-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-08 Sold (MLS) $230,000 PrimeMLS
• 2014-07-15 Listed $234,000 PrimeMLS
• 2009-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,117 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.