105 Alvarado St

Hebbronville, TX 78361

$33,995A-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 496 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 538 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $783/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax + insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $406/mo
• Annual: $4,876/yr
• Cap rate: 20.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.23%
• DSCR: 3.28
• 1% rule: 2.30%
• Cash to close: $9,519

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($783 rent vs $34k).
• It's been on market 538 days — a 12% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $30k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $235 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $325 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,032 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jim Hogg County ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #622 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP.
• Jim Hogg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 538 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.