105 Alvarado St · Hebbronville, TX 78361

$33,995

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 496 sqft · SingleFamily · 538 Days on market

Built 1950 7,000 sqft lot $69/sqft · 24% below area Est $45k · 24% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner financing Available Now at 0% interest! HOME AND METAL STORAGE CONTAINER FOR SALE! REDUCED PRICE! This gem is a steal! 40' x 8' - HUGE METAL CONTAINER included! Being a fixer upper just means there are many options! Located just half a black from State Highway 16 and no zoning means lots of possibilities! Property has been beautified with a custom wood and metal fence on the east side of the property. It sits adjacent to 2 popular restaurants. The lot is a whopping 50' x 140'. THE BONUS: an 8' x 40' metal storage container that can be converted to your new cabin - your "weekend stay" or "home away from home" while visiting relatives or go hunting in one of the many ranches/leases in South Texas. OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE. CALL FOR DETAILS.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 538 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($783 rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,032 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jim Hogg County ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #622 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $235 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $325 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jim Hogg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 538 days — a 12% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,915 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 538 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.23%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $45,000
• List price: $33,995
• Delta: -24.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $23,387
• Equity at exit: $8,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $56,521
• Equity at exit: $8,755

Cash invested: $9,519 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78361

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $783 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $239/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $269

Max offer price $33,995

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,499
• Closing costs: $1,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 779-char remark

   Show marketing remark (779 chars)

   Owner financing Available Now at 0% interest! HOME AND METAL STORAGE CONTAINER FOR SALE! REDUCED PRICE! This gem is a steal! 40' x 8' - HUGE METAL CONTAINER included! Being a fixer upper just means there are many options! Located just half a black from State Highway 16 and no zoning means lots of possibilities! Property has been beautified with a custom wood and metal fence on the east side of the property. It sits adjacent to 2 popular restaurants. The lot is a whopping 50' x 140'. THE BONUS: an 8' x 40' metal storage container that can be converted to your new cabin - your "weekend stay" or "home away from home" while visiting relatives or go hunting in one of the many ranches/leases in South Texas. OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE. CALL FOR DETAILS.

2. 2025-05-02
   listed $33,995 Active
3. 2025-02-04
   price $33,995 779-char remark

   Show marketing remark (779 chars)

   Owner financing Available Now at 0% interest! HOME AND METAL STORAGE CONTAINER FOR SALE! REDUCED PRICE! This gem is a steal! 40' x 8' - HUGE METAL CONTAINER included! Being a fixer upper just means there are many options! Located just half a black from State Highway 16 and no zoning means lots of possibilities! Property has been beautified with a custom wood and metal fence on the east side of the property. It sits adjacent to 2 popular restaurants. The lot is a whopping 50' x 140'. THE BONUS: an 8' x 40' metal storage container that can be converted to your new cabin - your "weekend stay" or "home away from home" while visiting relatives or go hunting in one of the many ranches/leases in South Texas. OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE. CALL FOR DETAILS.

4. 2024-11-11
   listed $37,995 Active 779-char remark

   Show marketing remark (779 chars)

   Owner financing Available Now at 0% interest! HOME AND METAL STORAGE CONTAINER FOR SALE! REDUCED PRICE! This gem is a steal! 40' x 8' - HUGE METAL CONTAINER included! Being a fixer upper just means there are many options! Located just half a black from State Highway 16 and no zoning means lots of possibilities! Property has been beautified with a custom wood and metal fence on the east side of the property. It sits adjacent to 2 popular restaurants. The lot is a whopping 50' x 140'. THE BONUS: an 8' x 40' metal storage container that can be converted to your new cabin - your "weekend stay" or "home away from home" while visiting relatives or go hunting in one of the many ranches/leases in South Texas. OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE. CALL FOR DETAILS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $239 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$383/yr (+$32/mo · 160.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 93% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,904
• − Property taxes: −$239
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$752
• − Management: −$752
• − Depreciation: −$989
• Taxable income: $4,592
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $3,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jim Hogg County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824750
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $35,870
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7391
• State rank: #622 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hebbronville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1032
• US rank: #18361

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hebbronville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,764

Population outlook (Jim Hogg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,023 people
• By 2030: 4,897 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 4,722 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 4,510 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 3,827 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 2,794 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 78% Two or more races 40% White 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 58% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jim Hogg

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.3) · D 54.0% · R 45.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 47.6pp · 2024: 8.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.3 2020: D+17.9 2016: D+56.9 2012: D+56.7 2008: D+47.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 99.0946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — CBMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $33,995 LAOR
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $33,995 CBMLS
• 2024-11-11 Listed $37,995 CBMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $239 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.