1511 Timber Ridge Dr

Cleveland, OK 74020

$242,500F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,684/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,272
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$5
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,799/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $67,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (30.5% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#93 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Cleveland (town): math 21% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #169 of 270 in OK (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cleveland Primary Es (411 students, 0% FRL); Cleveland Ms (math 17% / reading 14%, grade F, #215 of 345 statewide, top 63%, 410 students, 0% FRL); Cleveland Hs (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #222 of 447 statewide, top 52%, 483 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Pawnee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pawnee County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $242k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?