1511 Timber Ridge Dr · Cleveland, OK 74020

$242,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1978 0.48 ac lot Est $188k · 29% over $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently remodeled home in quiet neighborhood, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, big yard, laminate & tile flooring throughout, view of the neighborhood pool, tennis court & park across the street. All within 5 miles of Keystone Lake.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Large laundry room
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• ROCK RIDGE NEIGHBORHOOD
• ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE
• LARGE FENCED IN BACKYARD
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $60; Community pool; Tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with shelving; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Faces west; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built of stone, wood siding, and wood frame; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Dog run; Porch; Chain link fencing; Located on a golf course

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven; Range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Tile; Wood veneer
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Storm windows; Laminate counters; Ceiling fan(s); Electric oven and range connections
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#93 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Cleveland (town): math 21% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #169 of 270 in OK (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cleveland Primary Es (411 students, 0% FRL); Cleveland Ms (math 17% / reading 14%, grade F, #215 of 345 statewide, top 63%, 410 students, 0% FRL); Cleveland Hs (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #222 of 447 statewide, top 52%, 483 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Pawnee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pawnee County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $242k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,421 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,020
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1513 Timber Ridge Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-7%)	3mo	$175,000	$119	85
1507 Timber Ridge Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+3%)	19mo	$185,500	$114	77
1503 Timber Ridge St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-10%)	20mo	$185,000	$130	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $122,431
• Equity at exit: $218,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $367,859
• Equity at exit: $471,124

Cash invested: $67,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74020

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,272
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,232/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,874

Max offer price $216,023

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-81	+0% $-150	+5% $-219	+10% $-287
Rent	-10% $-283	-5% $-216	+0% $-150	+5% $-83	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-28	-0.5pp $-88	base $-150	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,625
• Closing costs: $7,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $242,500 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,500 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,500 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,500 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,500 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,500 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $242,500 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,500 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $242,500 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,500 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,500 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,500 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,500 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,500 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-04-04
    listed $249,500 Active
16. 2014-08-27
    soldstatus $130,000
17. 2014-08-25
    soldstatus $130,000 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Recently remodeled home in quiet neighborhood, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, big yard, laminate & tile flooring throughout, view of the neighborhood pool, tennis court & park across the street. All within 5 miles of Keystone Lake.

18. 2014-05-16
    listed $149,900 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Recently remodeled home in quiet neighborhood, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, big yard, laminate & tile flooring throughout, view of the neighborhood pool, tennis court & park across the street. All within 5 miles of Keystone Lake.

19. 2012-07-13
    soldstatus $60,199 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    FORECLOSURE--- CHECK THIS PRICE!!!! THIS COULD BE THE FORECLOSURE YOU ARE LOOKING FOR!!! BUYER OR BUYER S AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION: SCHOOLS, TAXES, RESTRICTIONS AND ROOM SIZES, ETC. SOLD AS IS .

20. 2012-04-25
    listed $68,000 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    FORECLOSURE--- CHECK THIS PRICE!!!! THIS COULD BE THE FORECLOSURE YOU ARE LOOKING FOR!!! BUYER OR BUYER S AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION: SCHOOLS, TAXES, RESTRICTIONS AND ROOM SIZES, ETC. SOLD AS IS .

21. 1995-09-22
    soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,232 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$950/yr (+$79/mo · 77.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,584
• − Property taxes: −$1,232
• − Insurance: −$1,212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$7,055
• Taxable loss: −$6,166
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,480
• After-tax cash flow: $-319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland
• NCES district ID: 4008040
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,642
• Composite: 17.52/100
• National rank: #9049
• State rank: #169 of 270 in OK

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #10844

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, OK
• Population (ZIP): 7,365

Population outlook (Pawnee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,219 people
• By 2030: 16,028 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 15,724 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 15,563 · -4.0%
• By 2075: 15,905 · -1.9%
• By 2100: 16,058 · -1.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pawnee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 19.7% · R 78.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+57.5 2016: R+53.2 2012: R+40.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.01%
• Current HPI: 218.04
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+302.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $249,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2014-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-25 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2014-05-16 Listed $149,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2012-07-13 Sold (MLS) $60,199 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2012-04-25 Listed $68,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 1995-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,232 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.