The Shasta II Plan

Princeton, TX 75407

$276,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,649 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 813 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,721
• Tax + insurance: −$547
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-584/mo
• Annual: $-7,003/yr
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.62%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $91,871

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $277k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-584 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (23.0% below list).
• It's been on market 813 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 813 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.