The Shasta II Plan · Princeton, TX 75407

$276,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,649 sqft · SingleFamily · 813 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new community in Princeton, TX will feature our brand-new Twin Home Product as well as our Craftsman Series 40' Product! Local shops and restaurants in downtown Princeton are just miles from Town Park North. Commuting to work is a breeze with easy access to the Sam Rayburn and Dallas North Tollways as well as US-75! HOA fees for our Twin Home product include front and side yard mowing and maintenance, fertilization and weed maintenance, and bush/tree trimming! Community Amenities: Playground | Trail System

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 813 days

Tags

• BRAND-NEW TWIN HOME PRODUCT
• CRAFTSMAN SERIES 40' PRODUCT
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• HOA INCLUDES YARD MAINTENANCE

🏗️ New construction. The $276,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $328,111.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-583 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 813 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,216 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 813 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.62%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,111
• List price: $276,900
• Delta: -15.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 Griffith Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,651 (+0%)	1mo	$249,980	$151	95
205 Griffith Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,521 (-8%)	2mo	$244,980	$161	76
322 Boston	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,537 (-7%)	3mo	$294,960	$192	72
211 Griffith Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,431 (-13%)	2mo	$229,970	$161	67
204 Griffith	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (-13%)	3mo	$229,970	$161	64
209 Timber Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (+1%)	3mo	$274,900	$165	63
521 Big Bend Pkwy	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,606 (-3%)	1mo	$289,990	$181	58
351 Peachtree Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,883 (+14%)	1mo	$299,900	$159	55
409 Kingsbury Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,606 (-3%)	2mo	$308,990	$192	54
417 Wydown Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (+7%)	2mo	$309,990	$176	54
767 Myrtle Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (-8%)	1mo	$233,000	$154	47
406 Kingsbury Ave	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,810 (+10%)	2mo	$319,990	$177	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-96,522
• Equity at exit: $48,922

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-155,888
• Equity at exit: $28,369

Cash invested: $91,871 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,721
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,922/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-583

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,870

Max offer price $243,736

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,028
• Closing costs: $9,843
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
226 Griffith Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,675	$1.25	24d	1	0.17mi
100 E Brown St Princeton, TX	3.0	1.0	1196	$2,870	$2.40	1d	1	0.18mi
101 Teakwood Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,000	$1.10	22d	1	0.25mi
320 Timbercreek Ct Princeton, TX	5.0	2.5	2028	$3,990	$1.97	1d	1	0.31mi
228 N 4th St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,450	$0.99	44d	1	0.35mi
414 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,595	$1.20	24d	1	0.37mi
236 Cr-454 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,025	$1.21	4d	1	0.47mi
712 Prairie Creek Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,350	$1.15	44d	1	0.48mi
502 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,550	$1.20	44d	1	0.49mi
512 E Hazelwood St Unit A Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,349	$1.04	44d	1	0.52mi
514 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,475	$1.07	24d	1	0.52mi
514 E Hazelwood St Unit B Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	44d	1	0.52mi
514 E Hazelwood St Unit B Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,475	$1.07	7d	1	0.52mi
468 Pebble Brook Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,250	$1.03	13d	1	0.55mi
417 Sweet Shade Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1726	$1,900	$1.10	18d	1	0.56mi
414 Sweet Shade Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,900	$1.12	44d	1	0.59mi
600 Jefferson Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	19d	1	0.59mi
715 Mulberry Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,695	$1.31	24d	1	0.60mi
217 Creekwood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,825	$1.04	13d	1	0.65mi
899 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,780	$1.80	1d	14	0.67mi
767 Myrtle Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,790	$1.18	7d	1	0.69mi
767 Myrtle Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,775	$1.17	5d	1	0.69mi
780 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,069	$1.13	44d	1	0.69mi
704 Cedar Cove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$1,900	$1.05	24d	1	0.70mi
771 Bayonet St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,850	$1.22	22d	1	0.70mi
412 Stonecreek Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1763	$1,950	$1.11	44d	1	0.70mi
366 Lake Erie Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$1,990	$1.09	24d	1	0.71mi
406 Kingsbury Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,095	$1.16	44d	1	0.71mi
418 Kingsbury Ave Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,095	$1.16	44d	1	0.73mi
912 N 4th St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,249	$1.55	13d	1	0.73mi
409 Buckeye Ave Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1726	$1,850	$1.07	44d	1	0.74mi
713 Cedar Cove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,810	$1.33	2d	1	0.75mi
1008 N 4th St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,776	$1.43	5d	1	0.76mi
803 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1683	$1,850	$1.10	44d	1	0.76mi
818 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,349	$1.16	2d	1	0.77mi
843 Ozark Path Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,100	$1.68	44d	1	0.79mi
814 Lake Fletcher Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1991	$1,994	$1.00	4d	1	0.79mi
814 Lake Fletcher Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1921	$1,994	$1.04	5d	1	0.79mi
515 Creekside Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,900	$1.23	44d	1	0.79mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,799	$1.87	44d	23	0.81mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,900 Active 813 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,900 Active 812 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,900 Active 811 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,900 Active 810 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,900 Active 808 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,900 Active 807 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,900 Active 804 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,900 Active 803 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $276,900 Active 802 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $276,900 Active 799 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,900 Active 798 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,900 Active 797 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,900 Active 796 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,900 Active 795 DOM
15. 2024-03-27
    listed $276,900 Active 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    This new community in Princeton, TX will feature our brand-new Twin Home Product as well as our Craftsman Series 40' Product! Local shops and restaurants in downtown Princeton are just miles from Town Park North. Commuting to work is a breeze with easy access to the Sam Rayburn and Dallas North Tollways as well as US-75! HOA fees for our Twin Home product include front and side yard mowing and maintenance, fertilization and weed maintenance, and bush/tree trimming! Community Amenities: Playground | Trail System

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,379
• − Property taxes: −$4,922
• − Insurance: −$1,641
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − Depreciation: −$9,545
• Taxable loss: −$12,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,119
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-03-27 Listed $276,900 Zillow