518 Glen Lily Rd

Bowling Green, KY 42101

$164,900D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,318 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $212/mo
• Annual: $2,540/yr
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (9.3% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #48 of 165 in KY (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warren Elementary (math 11% / reading 21%, grade F, #617 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 695 students, 92% FRL); Henry F. Moss Middle School (math 14% / reading 30%, grade F, #203 of 217 statewide, top 94%, 566 students, 89% FRL); Warren Central High School (math 14% / reading 25%, grade F, #213 of 254 statewide, top 86%, 1,021 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 42% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Warren County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 639 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.2% in Bowling Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.