518 Glen Lily Rd · Bowling Green, KY 42101

$164,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,318 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1945 0.27 ac lot $125/sqft · at area comps Est $164k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom home with hardwood and vinyl plank flooring. The windows have been replaced and the home is currently rented for $1200.00 until September.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 129 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.2% in Bowling Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Warren County (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #48 of 165 in KY (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 592 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,742
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: 0.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Warren Way	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,319 (+0%)	1mo	$195,000	$148	73
1508 Lynhurst Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,250 (-5%)	2mo	$140,000	$112	67
1151 N Lee Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,430 (+8%)	2mo	$190,000	$133	65
1217 N Lee Dr	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (+6%)	9mo	$170,000	$121	64
1425 Longview Dr	0.28mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,210 (-8%)	3mo	$189,000	$156	64
1220 Westmeade Dr	0.19mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,176 (-11%)	2mo	$159,000	$135	64
1239 N Sunrise Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,252 (-5%)	5mo	$135,000	$108	64
1335 Fair St	0.62mi	4/1.5	1,280 (-3%)	2mo	$120,000	$94	63
608 Old Morgantown Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-4%)	5mo	$220,000	$173	60
814 Old Morgantown Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (-3%)	7mo	$171,000	$134	56
1448 N Sunrise Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,160 (-12%)	8mo	$199,500	$172	54
1428 Audubon Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,168 (-11%)	8mo	$172,000	$147	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,304
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,520
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42101

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 592
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $433/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,227

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $258	+0% $212	+5% $165	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $153	+0% $212	+5% $271	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $254	base $212	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1225 N Lee Dr Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,345	$1.12	44d	1	0.21mi
1700 Johnson Dr Bowling Green, KY	3.0	1.0	936	$1,250	$1.34	14d	1	0.87mi
1059 Fair St Unit 1 Bowling Green, KY	3.0	1.0	1002	$800	$0.80	22d	1	0.87mi
804 West Town Ct Bowling Green, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	14d	1	1.04mi
1525 Park St Bowling Green, KY	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	22d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,900 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,900 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $164,900 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-03-04
    price $169,900 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    Three bedroom home with hardwood and vinyl plank flooring. The windows have been replaced and the home is currently rented for $1200.00 until September.

18. 2026-02-09
    listed $172,500 Active 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    Three bedroom home with hardwood and vinyl plank flooring. The windows have been replaced and the home is currently rented for $1200.00 until September.

19. 2024-03-01
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Home has hardwood floors, replacement windows, fresh paint, and new plank vinyl flooring. A must see that won't last long!!

20. 2024-03-01
    soldstatus $135,000

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Home has hardwood floors, replacement windows, fresh paint, and new plank vinyl flooring. A must see that won't last long!!

21. 2024-02-06
    historical Active Under Contract 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Home has hardwood floors, replacement windows, fresh paint, and new plank vinyl flooring. A must see that won't last long!!

22. 2024-01-30
    listed $139,900 Active 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Home has hardwood floors, replacement windows, fresh paint, and new plank vinyl flooring. A must see that won't last long!!

23. 2019-01-24
    soldstatus $150,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $433 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,418 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$985/yr (+$82/mo · 227.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$433
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$220
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$53
• After-tax cash flow: $2,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County
• NCES district ID: 2105730
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $50,092
• Composite: 31.55/100
• National rank: #5958
• State rank: #48 of 165 in KY

Livability — Bowling Green

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #12782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bowling Green, KY
• County: Warren County · 129,408 people
• City population: 129,408
• Metro: Bowling Green, KY
• Population (ZIP): 65,421
• Household income: $48,217
• Rent vs Own: 55.3% rent · 44.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3855.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,620 people
• By 2030: 155,977 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 179,381 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 203,713 · +40.9%
• By 2075: 267,291 · +84.8%
• By 2100: 314,019 · +117.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% American 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 37.0% · R 61.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+16.8 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.34%
• Current HPI: 277.6554
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Metro: Bowling Green, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+12.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $169,900 RASKMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $172,500 RASKMLS
• 2024-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-01 Sold (MLS) $135,000 RASKMLS
• 2024-02-06 Contingent — RASKMLS
• 2024-01-30 Listed $139,900 RASKMLS
• 2019-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $150,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $433 · +99.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.